We are now a few stages before single man flying suites become commercially available for the masses.

In this stage of the technology life cycle, it is common to see multiple companies coming up with their own working prototype.

In the next stage, some number of companies will figure out the business model and marketing channels while a lot more will fail. Many of the viable ideas and employees from these failed companies will get absorbed into the surviving companies.

The final stage would be when the manufacturing gets outsourced to China. During this stage, cost of production will drop…

When training neural networks, until enough training data is collected there will be a period when the output of the neural network is full of false positives and false negatives (aka junk)

The same could be said of the human brain (a biological neural network), unless you have access to another human brain whose output you can totally trust and rely on, there will be a prolonged period when you fumble around while struggling to gather enough data to build a mental model of the new domain.

Based on my experience, the main challenge when breaking into new domains is…

Office for the day. A proxy of view into the heart of the Permian basin as I get my car wheels aligned

The level of auto traffic along the Cedar Street, Pecos Texas is a very clear proxy on the health status of the US Oil industry.

Factors negatively impacting economic activities in the area:

  • US Elections: Oil companies operating in area put activities on hold awaiting for forthcoming mandate
  • Holidays: Demand for oil drops
  • COVID pandemic: Demand for oil drops

Responsiveness of lagging indicators:

  • Lag time between events and lagging indicators within the region is typically 24 hours
  • Layoffs can happen within 24 hours of environment triggers
  • Rapid hiring can happen within 24 hours of environment trigger
  • On occasions, rapid hiring…
close 20% of publicly traded US companies experienced more than a 10% sell off during a 7 rolling period
close 20% of publicly traded US companies experienced more than a 10% sell off during a 7 rolling period

Investment Funds market exposure strategies can be categorized primarily into three types.

Type 1: Long only strategy: funds that buy and hold positions.

Type 2: Short only strategy: funds that primarily borrow and short shares

Type 3: Market neutral strategy: funds that hold half their position in long and half their positions in short attempting to gain from some form of arbitrage between performers and losers.

To increase profit funds would typically be leveraged. Levels of leverage is dependent on how aggressive each individual fund is. …

Sometimes there comes an inflection point where you have to make a great leap of faith.

I can still remember that morning back in 2008, when I woke up in Shymkent, Khazakastan. I was feeling undecided about taking up Bernhard and Franzikas’ offer the night before to go visit them in Europe or just turning around and heading back home to Singapore overland. I was down to just USD3,000 in my bank account at that point. Shymkent was about the half way mark if you were planning to travel overland from Asia to Europe.

Sitting in the cafe sipping my…

Over the past 24 months, we monitored the movement of money around the world and ran an experiment based on the principles of fluid dynamics.

Benchmark of our portfolio’s performance versus the SnP
Benchmark of our portfolio’s performance versus the SnP

During the course of the experiment, our portfolio outperformed the SnP by close to 4x ( 61.3% versus 14.87%) with seemingly lower levels of volatility (a standard deviation of 12.30% versus 14.52%).

We were also able to make some really fascinating observations along the way. …

The range of known cognitive biases

Overview

All decisions are inherently emotional. Our lymphatic system is a more ancient and robust system than our logical faculties. Its been shown in studies, conducted by Antonio Damasio in 2000, that patients with damage to the part of the brain that processes emotions have trouble making even the smallest decisions.

Humans are by nature social creatures. Studies show that our brains contain mirror neurons which endows us the ability to empathize with another fellow human being. This also implies our emotions are easily subjected to the influence of others. …

The trough of sorrow

While I was reading through most of the success stories that were published on IndieHackers.com, it occurred to me that my project GetData.IO really took longer than most others to gain significant traction, a full 5 years actually.

The beginning

I first stumbled upon this project back in December 2012 when I was trying to solve two other problems of my own.

In my first problem, I was trying to identify the best stocks to buy on the Singapore Stock Exchange. While browsing through the stocks listed on their website, I soon realize that most stock exchanges as well as other financial…

I was trying for the longest time to articulate the problem I was trying to solve when the most suitable analogy finally occurred to me when I was doing my evening meditation today.

The web is a giant graph database where each web page is a node in the graph.

Just like any node within a graph database, it contains attributes. In this case, there are two types of attributes:

  1. values embedded within the DOM elements of the page
  2. values embedded within the URL of the page

Just like any relationships between nodes within a graph database, each node can…

Gary Teh

Founder and CEO of GetData.IO - Providing simple and affordable data gathering to help people make good decisions

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